Themes

Fragile vs Resilient vs Antifragile

This is Taleb’s most celebrated book, although it is Black Swan that made him famous. In this book, he introduces the concept of Anti-fragility, and spends most of the book exploring what it means.

A system is fragile if variation in its environment easily leads to destruction. Stylistically, I’ve always enjoyed Taleb’s predilection for ancient myth, and for fragility, he uses the Sword of Damocles myth. It is the story of the man who asked to be king, and so the king, to demonstrate to the man how difficult the and perilous the title of king really is, hung a large sword by a horsehair directly above the throne.

A resilient or robust system is one that can withstand variation and not be destroyed. When put under stress, it manages to survive or continue on. Taleb uses the Phoenix for this concept.

Lastly, anti-fragility describes the phenomenon in which a system grows stronger in randomness. It seems to benefit from variance. Taleb uses the Hydra to describe this concept. The Hydra was a mythical beast that when it had its head cut off, grew two in the place of one.

The following themes are varying manifestations of antifragility or are strategies for creating antifragility in one’s own life.

Don’t give me your advice, tell me what’s in your portfolio

This phrase has been the most enduring of all Taleb concepts across all of this books. Taleb notes that one should always follow someone’s actions, not their words. He advises heaving a significant skepticism of those who go at great lengths to tell you one thing but obscure what they do.

Don’t tell me how to invest, just show me your portfolio so I can see where you have exposed yourself to risk. Understanding where someone’s own risk exists, or in other words where they have skin in the game, is a much better indicator of their opinion. This concept has helped shaped much of how approach advice and learning.

Deduction vs Induction

Taleb notes that the best way to solve most problems is by removing things than by adding things. How do you make a successful company? Know what XYZ things NOT to do, and avoid them. I’ve found this to be particularly true in my own life, that simplifying helps solve problems or make decisions. To this point, Taleb notes that there are never many reasons to do something. Usually we are motivated by one reason, and everything else is just us trying to convince ourselves.

“If true wealth consists in worriless sleeping, clear conscience, reciprocal gratitude, absence of envy, good appetite, muscle strength, physical energy, frequent laughs, no meals alone, no gym class, some physical labor (or hobby), good bowel movements, no meeting rooms, and periodic surprises, then it is largely subtractive (elimination of iatrogenics)”

Lindy Effect